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Signal Matrix — Economic Cycle at a Glance
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IOD Wildcard — India Modifier
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is the critical modifier to ENSO's monsoon signal for India. A positive IOD reinforces El Niño drought risk; a negative IOD can offset La Niña flood risk. Every India-facing macro call in this dashboard — especially agricultural inflation (food CPI, WPI), rural consumption (FMCG), and kharif crop projections — is conditional on the IOD phase. Current status: Neutral IOD, transitioning to weak positive in Q3 2025. Monitor NOAA and BOM IOD outlooks alongside ENSO CPC releases. Checking NOAA… See Fenrir Research Climate & Markets series (Parts I & II) for the full framework.
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