Micron’s $100bn, PCE at 4.1%, VIX at 13
Micron reported a $100bn data center annualised run rate on Wednesday — the single largest AI infrastructure number of the cycle. Thursday’s PCE printed at 4.1% YoY, the first reading above 4% since April 2023 — in line with consensus but structurally sticky. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard tried to close Hormuz mid-week; Washington reported 55 vessels transited anyway. India VIX halved from 27 to 13 in four days on the peace-talk momentum. The S&P closed +1.47% at a new all-time high near 7,610 — the market decided AI infrastructure delivery + services normalisation + Hormuz operational transit outweighs sticky PCE and a hawkish Fed.
| Index | Region | Jun 26 Close | WTD % | Since Lib. Day | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | |||||
| S&P 500 | US | ~7,610 | +1.47% | +34.2% | New all-time high; above May 29 record; tech + industrials led |
| Nasdaq 100 | US | ~27,385 | +3.27% | +45% | Recovered Broadcom losses; Micron $100bn run rate confirmed AI structural |
| Nasdaq Composite | US | ~27,400 | +3.30% | +43% | All-time high; +8% since streak-break trough |
| Dow Jones Ind. Avg. | US | ~51,900 | +0.55% | +31.5% | Lagged on Iran shipping concerns; energy sector −5.85% weekly |
| Europe | |||||
| FTSE 100 | UK | ~10,640 | +1.04% | +23.1% | Modest gains; energy weighed offset by industrials |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | EU | ~6,150 | +0.33% | +19.4% | Consolidation; luxury/auto held; energy weighed |
| DAX | Germany | ~25,400 | +0.24% | +19.9% | Stable; industrials led on trade-corridor view |
| CAC 40 | France | ~8,275 | +0.24% | +13.6% | Modest; profit-taking on defence complex |
| Asia-Pacific | |||||
| SSE Composite | China | ~4,020 | −1.71% | +20.1% | May activity weak; retail sales fell for first time since Dec 2022 |
| Hang Seng | HK | ~24,750 | −4.37% | +7.1% | Worst weekly decline since March; China weakness compounded |
| Nifty 50 | India | 24,056.00 | +0.18% | +2.4% | Third straight weekly gain (longest in 7 months); Muharram closure Fri |
| Sensex | India | 77,100.47 | +0.39% | +3.8% | Above 77k monthly expiry; India VIX halved to 13.05 |
| Nikkei 225 | Japan | ~71,250 | +3.2% | +53% | Record close; post-BoJ hike + Iran deal both tailwinds |
| Commodities / Fixed Income / FX | |||||
| Brent Crude | — | ~$77/bbl | −3.4% | — | Continued oil decline despite Iran closure claim; 55 vessels transited |
| WTI Crude | — | ~$74/bbl | −3.9% | — | Below $75; Treasury authorised Iranian oil sale for 60 days |
| US 10-yr Yield | — | ~4.30% | Eased | — | PCE in line; USD softened; short end held |
| US 30-yr Yield | — | ~4.85% | Eased | — | Below 5%; 20-yr auction absorbed |
| USD/INR | — | ~94.0 | Rupee stable | — | Firm; oil pullback compounds G-Sec inflow tailwind |
| Release | Period | Actual | vs. Est. / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline PCE (BEA) | May 2026 | +4.1% YoY / +0.4% MoM | Highest YoY since Apr 2023; MoM slightly cooler than +0.5% est |
| Core PCE (BEA) | May 2026 | +3.4% YoY / +0.3% MoM | In line with consensus; up from 3.3% Apr; services 2% YoY, +0.5% MoM |
| Q1 2026 GDP (third estimate) | Q1 2026 | +2.1% annualised | Up from +2.0% advance and +1.6% second estimate; upward revision |
| Personal Income | May 2026 | +0.7% ($181.6bn) | Rebounded from Apr flat reading; DPI +0.7%; savings rate 3.0% |
| Durable Goods Orders | May 2026 | Held resilient | Prior +7.9% partially unwound but less than −4.7% expected |
| Personal Savings Rate | May 2026 | 3.0% | Unchanged from prior; down from 5.5% peak Apr 2025 |
| Micron Q3 FY26 Rev | Reported Jun 24 after close | $41.46bn | +346% YoY vs $9.3bn; slightly below $43.58bn LSEG consensus |
| Micron Data Center Revenue | Q3 FY26 | >$25bn | $100bn annualised run rate; SSD rev >$5bn (doubled sequentially) |
| Micron Cloud Memory Gross Margin | Q3 FY26 | 83% | Up from 58% Q3 FY25; operating margin 78% |
| Fed Funds September Hike Odds | End of week | ~90% | Up from ~60% pre-FOMC; hawkish dot plot + PCE + jobs converging |
| India VIX | Week Jun 22-26 | 27.32 → 13.05 | Near-halving in four days; peace-talk risk premium compression |
| India WPI | May 2026 | +9.68% | Up from 8.26% Apr; fuel/manufacturing cost surge |
India VIX Collapse from 27 to 13; Third Straight Weekly Gain (Longest in 7 Months); Bank Nifty +1.68% on RBI Rate-Hike Ruling; Jio Platforms Files $4bn IPO
Indian benchmarks extended their winning streak to a third consecutive week — the longest in seven months — during the four-day trading week (markets closed Friday June 26 for Muharram). The Nifty 50 closed at 24,056.00 (up 43 points, 0.18% on the week), and the Sensex settled at 77,100.47 (up 0.39%), holding above the psychological 77,000 monthly expiry level. The week’s structurally significant story was not the modest headline gain but the collapse in India VIX from 27.32 on Monday to 13.05 on Thursday — a near-halving in four sessions, one of the sharpest weekly VIX contractions in recent months. The mechanism is the pricing-out of the Iran-war geopolitical risk premium that had defined Indian equity volatility since February.
Sectoral performance was bifurcated. Bank Nifty rose 1.68% on Wednesday — its best single-day gain of the week — after RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra ruled out near-term rate hikes in a public commentary, reinforcing the neutral stance framing established at the June 5 MPC. Autos led on the fuel-cost relief thesis (Tata Motors, M&M, Maruti participated), and pharma held throughout the week. The clear laggards were IT services and metals. Nifty IT fell 2.23% Thursday on continued fallout from Accenture’s June 19 revenue guidance cut — Infosys down 3.37% and TCS down 3.16%. Nifty Metals plunged 3.22% on a massive KOSPI −11% single-day plunge that triggered global circuit breakers, with Vedanta down 7.9% on a large block deal and NALCO, Hindustan Zinc, and Jindal Steel down 4-6%.
Institutional flows continued the pattern established by the June 5 G-Sec tax architecture. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) net bought Rs 2,305 crore for the week, extending the recent turnaround from persistent Q1-Q2 selling. The single-day standout came on Friday June 19 (previous week’s close): FIIs bought Rs 4,859 crore in a single session — the largest single-day inflow since early February. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) purchased Rs 11,100 crore over the four-day week, continuing the structural absorption pattern. The rupee held firm around 94.0/USD, supported by the compound effect of Brent crude retreating to $77 (below pre-war baseline briefly) and G-Sec inflow expectations. Goldman Sachs upgraded its India FY27 GDP forecast to 6.5% from 6.1%, citing the post-deal energy relief and lower current account deficit trajectory.
The two structural India-specific stories were not sector rotations but corporate actions. First: Reliance Industries at its June 20 AGM announced that Jio Platforms filed draft red herring prospectus for an initial public offering potentially raising $4 billion (approximately Rs 37,700 crore) — billed as the largest IPO in Indian history. Jio Platforms will offer up to 27 crore fresh shares. The IPO timing suggests Reliance is positioning to monetise the digital services vertical amid the peak AI capex investment cycle. Second: Bharat Forge won a Rs 425 crore contract from the Ministry of Defence for gas turbine generators for the Indian Navy, driving the stock to a new 52-week high — part of a broader domestic defence procurement acceleration that has 141 stocks touching 52-week highs on Monday June 22 alone.
The macro story is complicated by WPI. India’s Wholesale Price Index rose to 9.68% in May from 8.26% in April — a significant acceleration driven by fuel price hikes (the four rounds of OMC hikes in April-May) and broad-based manufacturing cost increases. WPI at 9.68% is materially above the CPI at 3.93% (per Issue 09), meaning the producer-price passthrough into consumer prices remains ahead. The monsoon overlay adds structural risk: the national deficit widened to 43%, the monsoon advance stalled near Mumbai, Central India registered a 63% deficit, and both IMD and NOAA flagged moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions. If July-August fail to deliver, kharif crops (rice, pulses, oilseeds) come under pressure and food inflation could concern the RBI’s August 5-7 MPC. The base case remains 60% hold with easing bias, but the monsoon variable has become more binding.
Micron: $41.5bn Revenue (+346% YoY), $100bn Data Center Run Rate, 83% Cloud Memory Gross Margin
Micron Technology’s Q3 fiscal 2026 report on Wednesday June 24 after market close delivered the single largest AI infrastructure data point of the cycle. Revenue reached $41.46 billion — up 346% year-over-year from $9.30 billion in Q3 FY25 and up 74% sequentially from $23.86 billion in Q2. The revenue print was fractionally below the LSEG consensus of $43.58 billion (a rare below-expectations line item), but every other metric exceeded expectations. Non-GAAP EPS reached $25.11 per diluted share, a record; GAAP EPS was $24.67. Data center revenue exceeded $25 billion in the single quarter — an annualised run rate above $100 billion, up from Q3 FY25 levels below $10 billion annualised. Data center SSD revenue exceeded $5 billion, more than doubling sequentially. The Cloud Memory Business Unit posted 83% gross margin (up from 58% in Q3 FY25) and 78% operating margin. The Mobile and Client Business Unit grew 250% year-over-year to $11.52 billion, and even memory for automotive and embedded applications more than quadrupled to $4.63 billion. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra characterised the quarter as demonstrating Micron’s position as “a leader enabling the AI era.” Analyst commentary from Deutsche Bank and TD Cowen prior to the print had cited AI demand outrunning supply through 2028, with key customers only able to secure 50-67% of their bit demand requirements. The Q4 guidance implied continued sequential acceleration. The stock traded modestly higher post-print despite the revenue miss — the market’s view: the $100bn run rate and margin trajectory outweigh a 5% top-line consensus miss.
→ SEC EDGAR: Micron Q3 FY26 Press ReleasePCE 4.1% YoY (Highest Since Apr 2023), Core PCE 3.4% — In Line; Q1 GDP Revised Up to 2.1%; September Hike 90% Priced
Thursday June 25’s release of the May Personal Income and Outlays report from the BEA delivered the highest headline PCE reading in nearly three years — 4.1% year-over-year, up from 3.8% in April and the first reading above 4.0% since April 2023. Headline PCE rose 0.4% MoM (slightly cooler than the 0.5% consensus). Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, printed 3.4% YoY (up from 3.3% April) and 0.3% MoM — in line with consensus. Personal income rebounded sharply to +0.7% ($181.6bn) from April’s flat reading; disposable personal income also rose 0.7%. The personal savings rate held at 3.0% — down from 5.5% at the April 2025 peak, indicating consumers are drawing down savings to maintain spending patterns in the face of persistent inflation. Concurrent with PCE, the third estimate of Q1 2026 GDP was revised up to 2.1% from 2.0% advance and 1.6% second estimate — indicating underlying private-sector demand held better than initially reported. The market interpretation: the composition is deteriorating (services 2% YoY +0.5% MoM; goods 2.3% YoY +0.4% MoM), the direction is wrong (four consecutive months of PCE acceleration), but the magnitude is manageable if energy relief follows through. Fed funds futures priced a September hike at approximately 90% probability by week’s end, up from ~60% pre-FOMC. UBS wrote that “we expect this May will be the peak for headline PCE price inflation, which is likely to decline notably in June, as AAA retail regular-grade gasoline prices are down around $0.56 per gallon since May 20.”
→ Fox Business: May PCE 4.1% AnnuallyIran Revolutionary Guard Claims Hormuz “Closed” — Washington Counters With 55 Vessels Transited; Toll Question Deferred to 60-Day Window
The post-signing week produced immediate friction on the Iran deal’s operational terms. On Monday June 22, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz “closed” ahead of the bilateral talks scheduled for Lucerne, Switzerland. Washington disputed the closure, with US officials reporting 55 merchant vessels transited on June 20, and mediators Qatar and Pakistan issuing a joint statement that the first session of talks had concluded and progress was made on a roadmap to reach a final deal within 60 days. Trump on June 21 (Sunday) had threatened fresh strikes on Iran, injecting additional volatility ahead of the Monday open. The US Treasury Department authorised the sale of Iranian oil for 60 days as part of the interim architecture — a technical step that materially reduces the sanctioned-supply overhang. By mid-week, the picture stabilised: shipping intelligence from tracking sites showed 32 vessels transiting the strait on June 22 (down from pre-closure claim levels but well above the war-time low), and the Treasury sale authorisation confirmed the framework’s operational status. The Washington Post reported the framework calls for a 60-day ceasefire while a “final deal” is negotiated. Vice President Vance is leading the US delegation to the Lucerne technical talks. The unresolved item: whether transit tolls apply after the 60-day period. Iran’s Foreign Ministry continues to signal that navigation “will have costs” — directly at odds with the toll-free language codified in the G7 communique. Brent crude fell 3.4% on the week despite the closure claim, closing at approximately $77 — the market’s view is that the sequencing dispute is temporary friction, not a structural obstacle.
→ CNBC: Iran Deal Complications, Oil ResponseS&P +1.47%, Nasdaq +3.27% — Both to New All-Time Highs; Tech +3.45%, Industrials +3.26%, Energy −5.85%
The week produced a broad-based advance despite Monday’s Iran-driven selling, closing with the S&P 500 at a new all-time high of approximately 7,610 (up 1.47% on the week) and the Nasdaq Composite at approximately 27,400 (up 3.30%). The Nasdaq 100 rose 3.27% for the week. The sector composition tells the structural story: Information Technology gained 3.45% — its second consecutive week of solid gains following the Broadcom-triggered selloff in early June. Communication Services recovered 1.44% (Alphabet was up strongly after Monday’s initial 5% decline on AI-talent-departure concerns). Industrials were the standout at +3.26%, reflecting the reopened global shipping corridor’s implication for supply chain costs and industrial demand. Financials rose 1.85% on the yield-curve dynamics. Energy was the clear laggard at −5.85% as oil prices declined further on the deal’s operational advancement. The structurally important cross-market signal: the S&P 500 Equal Weight and Dow Jones Industrial Average both posted fresh all-time highs alongside the cap-weighted S&P — leadership is genuinely broadening beyond mega-cap tech. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index hit a record high, up approximately 7% for the week driven by Micron’s post-print rally and broader chip-sector participation. This is the cleanest broad-based advance the market has posted since the pre-streak-break period in late May.
→ Clearbrook: Weekly Market Commentary June 22Brent to $77, WTI Below $75 — Down 21% Over Past Month; 23 Million Barrels Transited Prior Weekend
Crude oil futures continued their post-deal decline, with Brent closing at approximately $77 per barrel (down 3.4% on the week and 21% over the past month) and WTI closing below $75. Both are now well below the pre-war baseline of ~$78 that many models had suggested would be the floor. The floor has proven porous partly because the 20 million barrels per day of oil and LNG that had been blocked by the strait closure is now returning to the market at a faster pace than shipping insurers and OPEC+ discipline had anticipated. Tankers carrying more than 23 million barrels of oil reportedly passed through the Strait during the prior weekend, per various shipping reports. The International Shipping Chamber’s prior estimate of 500 stranded vessels is now working through as insurance premiums have begun to normalise and the US Treasury’s authorisation of Iranian oil sales for 60 days has reopened the sanctioned-flow architecture. Goldman Sachs lowered its Brent forecast and expects Gulf exports to return to pre-conflict levels by the end of July — a faster timeline than earlier Rystad estimates. Demand-side concerns are also weighing on prices: the softer May PPI, weaker China activity data, and continued Chinese property-sector deleveraging point to weaker marginal oil demand at the same moment supply is normalising. The structural implication: the energy-driven inflation shock is now unambiguously in retreat, though the second-round effects (services passthrough that showed up in April CPI at 0.4% core MoM) will take 1-2 quarters to fully unwind.
→ Keel Point: Market Recap June 22Hang Seng −4.4% Worst Week Since March; China May Activity Data Disappointed Across the Board
The Hang Seng fell approximately 4.4% on the week to close near 24,750 — its worst weekly decline since March 2026 (when the US-Iran conflict erupted). The SSE Composite fell 1.7% to approximately 4,020. The drivers were multi-layered but centred on China’s May activity data, which disappointed across the board. Fixed-asset investment contracted 4.1% against a 2% forecast, indicating capital spending is not just slowing but actively declining. Retail sales fell for the first time since December 2022 — a structural shift from the base-effect recovery narrative that had supported Chinese consumer names through Q1. Industrial production improved to 4.5% year-on-year, but manufacturing strength cannot offset persistent weakness in domestic demand. New-home prices extended their decline to 35 consecutive months — the property-sector deflationary dynamic remains unbroken. Compounding the domestic weakness: the Hormuz shipping uncertainty exposed Chinese logistics and export-oriented names, and the Fed’s hawkish repricing pushed USD/CNY back to key levels. The Hang Seng closing below the 24,000 psychological level for the first time since July 2025 exposes technical support in the 22,500-23,000 zone as the next test. The Trump-Xi “strategic stability” framework from May now looks like a diplomatic ceiling rather than a directional catalyst: China’s structural growth challenge is the operative story, not the trade framework. The next binary event is the July Politburo session on Q3 policy stance.
→ IG: Weekly Market Navigator — China WeaknessIndia VIX Halved from 27 to 13 in Four Days; Bank Nifty +1.68% Wed; RBI Governor Ruled Out Near-Term Hike
The Indian market’s structurally significant story of the week was not the Nifty’s modest +0.18% weekly gain but the collapse in India VIX from 27.32 on Monday to 13.05 on Thursday — a near-halving in four trading sessions and one of the sharpest weekly VIX contractions in recent months. The mechanism: the Iran-US Lucerne technical talks that began Monday progressively priced out the geopolitical risk premium that had defined Indian equity volatility since February. The Nifty crossed 24,000 mid-week (briefly slipping below during Tuesday’s expiry-driven selloff before recovering) and closed at 24,056.00 on Thursday. Sensex settled at 77,100.47, above the 77,000 monthly expiry max pain level. Bank Nifty rose 1.68% on Wednesday — its best single-day gain of the week — after RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra publicly ruled out near-term rate hikes, reinforcing the neutral stance framing from the June 5 MPC. Auto and pharma led sectorally; IT (Infosys −3.37%, TCS −3.16%) and metals (Nifty Metal −3.22%) were the drags. FII net buying of Rs 2,305 crore extended the tax-relief-driven flow architecture; DIIs bought Rs 11,100 crore over the four-day week. The India VIX close at 13.05 with FII flows constructive and Nifty holding above 24,000 provides the most bullish structural signal for the near term that the Indian market has posted in months.
→ Univest: Stock Market Summary Jun 22-26Fed Funds Futures Price September Hike at 90%; Warsh Task Forces Begin Work on Inflation Framework
The convergence of the PCE 4.1% print, the sticky core PCE at 3.4%, the upward-revised Q1 GDP at 2.1%, and the +172k May payroll beat two weeks prior has moved Fed funds futures to price a September 2026 rate hike at approximately 90% probability — up from ~60% pre-FOMC and effectively locking in the hawkish dot plot’s implied path. The 2027 cut probability has been pushed further out with only 30-40% probability of any cut in 2027 currently priced. The Warsh Fed’s five task forces — announced at the June FOMC — have begun preliminary work: monetary policy operations, communications, data sources, productivity and labour market, and causes of inflation. Warsh has been clear that the task forces will not consider changes to the Fed’s 2% inflation target at this stage; rather, they focus on how inflation is measured and communicated. Ex-Powell voting behaviour will be increasingly scrutinised — his continued vote with the majority at the June meeting was interpreted as institutional continuity, but any dissent through the second half will be a marker of internal tension. Renaissance Macro’s Neil Dutta observed that “Warsh has come out swinging with a short statement and he did not submit a forecast” — a communication strategy that reduces the Fed’s forward transparency in a data-dependent regime. The market’s practical implication: every subsequent data release (July payrolls, June PCE, July CPI) carries more weight than under the Powell forward-guidance regime. The July 29-30 FOMC is the next binary event; markets are pricing hold with hawkish commentary as the base case ahead of a September hike.
→ Keel Point: Fed Funds September Hike at 90%| Development | One-line read |
|---|---|
| Jio Platforms $4bn IPO filing Jun 20 (Reliance AGM) |
Reliance Industries at its 49th AGM announced Jio Platforms filed draft red herring prospectus for an IPO potentially raising ~$4 billion (Rs 37,700 crore) — billed as the largest IPO in Indian history. Up to 27 crore fresh shares. The timing capitalises on peak AI-capex interest in digital infrastructure exposure. Roadshow expected to launch in Q3, listing potentially in Q4 2026. |
| Goldman Sachs India GDP upgrade Jun 25, 2026 |
Goldman Sachs raised India’s real GDP growth forecast to 6.5% for FY27 (from 6.1%) post the US-Iran peace deal, citing lower crude prices and improved current account. Also lowered inflation and CAD projections. The upgrade is the first major bank revision to reflect the post-deal macro configuration for India — the flow-through into consensus revisions is expected over the next 2-3 weeks. |
| KOSPI −11% single-day plunge Wk Jun 22-26 |
South Korea’s KOSPI plunged approximately 11% in a single session mid-week, triggering global circuit breakers and sending shockwaves through Asian markets. The proximate cause was a combination of memory-sector unwind (SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics) after concerns about supply catch-up compressing margins, plus renewed North Korea concerns. The knock-on: Indian IT and metals both took hits from the KOSPI-linked global rotation. |
| Amazon Prime Day, Best Buy Tech Fest Jun 23-26 |
Amazon Prime Day ran June 23-26; Best Buy Summer Tech Fest and Walmart Deals opened June 22. The overlap represents the largest retail promotional window of Q2 and provides a real-time read on consumer discretionary demand. Early anecdotal reports suggest AI-related product categories (memory-heavy laptops, AI PCs) sold well while non-AI discretionary lagged — consistent with the AI-tax dynamic Micron flagged in its earnings call. |
| India monsoon deficit 43% As of late Jun |
India’s monsoon deficit widened to 43% nationally as of late June, with Central India at 63% deficit and the advance stalled near Mumbai. IMD and NOAA both flagged moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions. If July-August fail to deliver, kharif crop pressure (rice, pulses, oilseeds) will hit food inflation and could concern the RBI at the August 5-7 MPC. The monsoon is now the primary domestic macro variable for India. |
| Nikkei crosses 71,250 all-time high Jun 22-26 |
The Nikkei 225 crossed 71,250 during the week — a fresh all-time closing high, extending the post-Iran-deal momentum that took the index above 69,000 the prior week. The BoJ rate hike to 1.0% is being interpreted as growth-supportive (via normalising inflation expectations) rather than restrictive at this stage. Japan is now +53% since Liberation Day, materially outperforming every other developed market in the series. |
The market’s Friday close settled a debate that had been open since June 5. Micron’s Wednesday print confirmed the AI infrastructure story as durable — $100 billion data center annualised run rate, 83% cloud memory gross margin, DRAM/NAND demand exceeding supply through 2028 per analyst commentary. Thursday’s PCE at 4.1% headline (highest since April 2023) and 3.4% core is sticky, in line with consensus, and structurally consistent with the Fed’s hawkish June dot plot. The market priced this configuration as: AI capital allocation is the operative structural force, energy-driven inflation is peaking and will decelerate through Q3 as Hormuz normalises, and a September Fed hike is manageable friction. S&P and Nasdaq to new all-time highs; VIX suppressed; bond market retreating below 5% at the 30-year.
The India story this week is unambiguously constructive. The VIX collapse from 27 to 13 in four days is the sharpest volatility compression the Indian market has posted this cycle. FII flows continue the G-Sec tax-architecture-driven turnaround. Bank Nifty led on RBI Governor Malhotra’s public ruling-out of near-term hikes. Goldman upgraded India GDP forecast to 6.5%. Reliance filed Jio Platforms IPO at $4bn — the largest in Indian history. The two structural overhangs are WPI at 9.68% (which will bleed into CPI through July-August) and the 43% monsoon deficit with El Niño conditions flagged. If the monsoon delivers July-August, the August 5-7 RBI MPC now has 60% hold with easing bias, 30% 25bps cut, 10% hawkish hold. If the monsoon disappoints, the entire distribution shifts hawkish.
The setup for the next four weeks: the July 3 payrolls report (early release due to Independence Day), the July 15 June CPI release, the July 29-30 FOMC where Warsh must communicate the September hike decision, the July 29-30 BoJ meeting where a second hike is 30% priced, and the August 5-7 RBI MPC. Corporate earnings season begins mid-July with the mega-cap financials setting the tone. The market is entering this window with three all-time highs (S&P, Nasdaq, Nikkei), a compressed volatility structure, and one of the tightest bull-bear differentials in months. Navigate by what you know. Adjust when the picture changes. That’s the method.
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