Weekly Market & Macro Wrap
A fragile Iran ceasefire sent oil into its sharpest weekly fall in years and delivered the Nifty 50’s biggest weekly gain in five — but Goldman’s CEO put a recession on the table if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut for much longer.
| Index | Region | Apr 17 Close | WTD % | Since Lib. Day | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | |||||
| S&P 500 | US | ~7,027 | +1.2% | +24% | Full war drawdown recovered; near 52-wk high |
| Dow Jones Ind. Avg. | US | ~48,550 | +0.7% | +22% | 4th positive session in 5 |
| Europe | |||||
| Euro Stoxx 50 | EU | ~5,933 | ~flat | +15% | Growth forecast downgrade flagged May |
| Stoxx Europe 600 | EU | 617.49 | +0.1% | +14% | — |
| FTSE 100 | UK | ~10,560 | +1.2% | +22% | +21% 12-mo. — standout DM outperformer |
| Asia-Pacific | |||||
| Hang Seng | HK | ~26,394 | +1.7% | +14% | Range 25,300–27,300; technically neutral |
| SSE Composite | China | 4,055 | +0.7% | +21% | PPI positive first time since Oct 2022 |
| Nifty 50 | India | ~24,250 | +2.0% | +3% | Biggest weekly gain in 5 yrs; VIX –26% |
| Commodities | |||||
| WTI Crude | — | ~$91–95/bbl | –8% wk | n/a | From $121 peak Mar 20; physical mkt still tight |
| Brent Crude | — | ~$94–95/bbl | –5% wk | n/a | ING: ~13mn bpd supply still disrupted |
| Release | Period | Actual | vs. Est. / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI (All Items) | Mar 2026 | +0.9% MoM / +3.3% YoY | Core +0.2%/+2.6%; energy-led spike after Feb +0.3% |
| US PPI (Final Demand) | Mar 2026 | +0.5% MoM / +4.0% YoY | Largest 12-mo. since Feb 2023; goods +1.6% |
| China CPI | Mar 2026 | +1.0% YoY | Below est. +1.2%; demand still lagging supply |
| China PPI | Mar 2026 | +0.5% YoY | First positive since Oct 2022 — deflation inflecting |
| Japan PPI | Mar 2026 | +2.6% YoY | From +2.0%; fuel-driven; BoJ rate hike signal |
| EU Growth Forecast | 2026 fwd | Downgrade pending | Iran war: –0.4 to –0.6% EU GDP; stagflation framing |
Iran–US–Israel: Fragile Ceasefire Holds, Hormuz Declared Open
After 48 days of conflict, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” as a 10-day Israel–Lebanon ceasefire took hold Thursday. Oil fell sharply; Trump stated the war “should be ending pretty soon,” having told reporters earlier that developments were imminent. The ceasefire is structurally fragile — Iran’s National Petrochemical Company suspended exports until further notice, ING estimated roughly 13 million barrels per day of supply remains disrupted, and tanker traffic has not normalised. A second round of US–Iran talks was under discussion as of Friday, with VP Vance expected to lead the delegation. The ceasefire came minutes before Trump’s Tuesday 8 p.m. ET deadline, at which point he had threatened to bomb Iranian infrastructure. BlackRock explicitly named tangible Hormuz reopening as the trigger to re-up risk after reducing exposure in Q1.
→ CNBC: Oil Tumbles After Iran Declares Hormuz OpenGoldman Q1: Record Equities, Record IB — But FICC Misses, Solomon Warns of Recession
Goldman Sachs reported Q1 2026 EPS of $17.55, beating the $16.49 consensus, on revenue of $17.23 billion — the firm’s second-highest quarterly total on record. Equities trading hit an all-time high of $5.33 billion, up 27% year-on-year, anchored by a 59% surge in prime brokerage financing as hedge funds repositioned through the Iran conflict. Investment banking fees climbed 48% to $2.84 billion on M&A advisory. The shadow: FICC revenue dropped 10% to $4.01 billion on weakness in rates, mortgages, and credit. CEO David Solomon’s post-result commentary carried the most market weight — he warned explicitly that if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut for six to twelve months, “the world’s going to end up in a recession. There’s no way to avoid that.” He also noted war churn had cooled IPO listings in March while M&A remained resilient.
→ CNBC: Goldman Sachs Q1 2026 EarningsOrbán Era Ends: Tisza Party Wins Hungarian Supermajority, CEE Political Risk Reprices
Peter Magyar’s Tisza Party won 138 of 199 seats in Hungary’s April 12 election, ending Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule with a two-thirds supermajority — receiving 3.3 million votes, the most any Hungarian party has recorded. Magyar told the victory rally the result was “visible from the moon and every window in Hungary.” The EU greeted the result with undisguised relief: Orbán had been its most consistent internal disruptor, blocking Ukraine aid and maintaining closer ties with Moscow than Brussels. The transition carries structural portfolio implications for CEE equity flows — a pro-EU Hungary unlocks previously frozen EU structural funds and removes a key tail risk on Euro-area political cohesion. VP Vance had flown to Budapest ahead of election day in an unsuccessful attempt to shore up Orbán’s standing.
→ CNN: Hungary Election — Orbán Concedes DefeatTrump–Xi Summit: Beijing, May 14–15 — Trade Truce Expiry and Tariff Architecture at Stake
Planning for the Trump–Xi summit has accelerated, with Beijing confirmed for May 14–15. One source described the dynamic as “the most predictable president and the least predictable president.” The central agenda item is the November 2026 expiry of the bilateral tariff truce, which reduced reciprocal tariffs to 10% following the October 2025 Busan summit. US–China direct trade has continued its structural decline through the truce period. Separately, new USTR Section 301 investigations were initiated in March 2026 covering manufacturing overcapacity across China, the EU, and Southeast Asian hubs — signalling tariff architecture is still evolving regardless of summit optics. For Asian EM equities, a durable truce extension is the single most important macro catalyst for H2 2026.
→ SCMP: Trump–Xi Summit — Uncertainty, Not StrategyUS Inflation Re-Accelerates: CPI +3.3% YoY, PPI Largest 12-Month Gain Since Feb 2023
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis in March — after +0.3% in February — driven by energy cost pass-through from the Iran conflict. The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.5% month-on-month; goods prices advanced 1.6%; the 12-month PPI reading of +4.0% is the largest since February 2023. Core CPI held at +0.2% MoM / +2.6% YoY, suggesting the pipeline pressure is energy-specific for now — but at current crude price levels, that distinction may not hold through Q2. The 10-year Treasury fell 4.9 basis points to 4.248% on the week as the ceasefire reduced the energy risk premium. University of Michigan April preliminary consumer sentiment was forecast at 52.1, consistent with compressed consumer confidence under the inflation and conflict backdrop. Rate cut expectations for 2026 remain firmly off the table.
→ BLS: PPI March 2026 ReleaseBlackRock Q1 2026: $13.9 Trillion AUM, Record $130 Billion Inflows, Private Markets Pivot Confirmed
BlackRock reported Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $12.53, beating the $11.48 consensus by 9%, on revenue of $6.70 billion — a 27% increase versus Q1 2025. Total net inflows of $130 billion were the highest first-quarter total in five years, led by private markets ($9 billion, including GIP V infrastructure closing above its $25 billion target) and record iShares ETF flows. AUM reached $13.9 trillion, up 20% year-on-year, reflecting full integration of Global Infrastructure Partners and January 2026 HPS Investment Partners close. Paired with Goldman’s equities/FICC divergence, the results confirm a consistent institutional capital story: volatility is opportunity for the well-capitalised, private markets inflows accelerate in uncertainty, and consolidation around scale platforms continues. The alternatives migration is not a theme — it is the prevailing architecture.
→ BlackRock: Q1 2026 EarningsNovo Nordisk–OpenAI: Enterprise AI Enters Drug Discovery at Scale
Novo Nordisk announced a full-enterprise strategic partnership with OpenAI on April 14, integrating advanced AI globally from drug discovery through to commercial operations, manufacturing, and supply chain, with full integration targeted by end of 2026. The deal is a direct competitive response to Eli Lilly’s recent FDA approval of Foundayo — a once-daily oral GLP-1 that entered the market weeks prior — putting pressure on Novo’s Wegovy franchise and making pipeline velocity the key strategic variable. The structure includes explicit data governance and human oversight provisions, framing how enterprise AI is being scoped for regulatory acceptability in drug development. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman noted AI “can help people live better, longer lives.” This is a template; the rest of Big Pharma will be benchmarked against it through 2026.
→ CNBC: Novo Nordisk Partners With OpenAIChina PPI Positive for First Time Since October 2022 — Industrial Deflation May Be Inflecting
China’s Producer Price Index rose 0.5% year-on-year in March 2026 — the first positive reading since October 2022, ending over three years of persistent PPI deflation that compressed corporate pricing power across Chinese industrials. CPI held at +1.0% YoY, below the 1.2% estimate — demand-side normalisation has not arrived; the factory-gate recovery is supply-side driven. The combination of positive PPI with below-consensus CPI suggests reflation is partial and fragile. The two signposts to watch: whether May PPI sustains above zero, and whether stimulus measures translate into consumer demand acceleration ahead of the May 14–15 Trump–Xi summit. A demand-driven reflation would be a meaningful positive for Chinese industrials and commodity-linked sectors; without it, the PPI inflection is a factory-gate phenomenon, not a profit recovery.
→ XTB: China & Japan Inflation Data, April 2026EU Flags Stagflationary Shock Risk — Growth Forecast Downgrade Coming in May
EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis announced the Commission is preparing to cut its official 2026 growth forecast in May, citing a “stagflationary shock” risk — the Iran conflict potentially cutting 0.4% off EU GDP in a short-conflict scenario, or up to 0.6% in a prolonged one. French services PMI contracted again at 48.8; factory orders came in at +0.9% MoM against a 2.0% consensus. The EU’s energy import exposure to Hormuz-linked disruption is structurally higher than the US, and sustained elevated energy prices feed directly into European industrial cost bases. The stagflation framing is the analytically decisive constraint — it limits ECB optionality. If energy-driven inflation persists, the ECB cannot respond to slowing growth with rate cuts without credibility cost. European defensives, energy infrastructure, and selective CEE equities — now with the Hungarian political tail risk removed — are the regional conviction positioning.
→ T. Rowe Price: Global Markets Weekly UpdateThe ceasefire relief rally is real — but the macro position underneath it has not improved. US CPI is at +3.3% and PPI at +4.0% year-on-year; Goldman’s CEO has put a recession warning on the table if Hormuz stays shut; the EU is staring at a stagflationary shock; and physical oil flows have not normalised. The Liberation Day chart is the honest summary: since April 2, 2025, the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 have delivered roughly 24% and 22% respectively, while Nifty 50 sits near flat — the Iran war’s oil shock has been a blunt instrument applied directly to India’s current account. This week’s Nifty performance is the first evidence that structural repricing is beginning. The next binary event is the Trump–Xi summit on May 14–15: a durable trade truce extension rewrites the EM and Asian equity setup for H2 2026 more than any other single factor. Navigate by what you know. Adjust when the picture changes. That’s the method.
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